Stock Market

How Will Tariffs Impact Your Investments?

I know this may come as a shock, but fundamentally, the topic of tariffs is actually good. Government leaders implement tariffs on foreign products and services to restrict imports by tacking on additional taxes or fees. The goal is to make foreign products less attractive to domestic consumers.

Tariff supporters argue that they helps correct trade inequities and boost domestic production and growth. They believe that well-targeted tariffs foster fair trade and create a more open and robust international marketplace, despite the tension in the short run.

Those against the idea argue that establishing tariffs is a highly arbitrary fix to flaws in a very complex international market that will lead to unnecessary and unproductive trade wars that historically have ended tragically.

What's Going On Now?

 
  • President Trump has threatened to implement tariffs on nations to correct trade imbalances, unfair exporting practices and marketplace offenses.
  • Trump imposed tariffs on Chinese goods as punishment for the country’s intellectual property theft.
  • The U.S. trade deficit with China has reached a record high of more than $375 billion.
  • Trump has also instituted tariffs on steel and aluminum shipments from Canada, Mexico, and the European Union.
 

Who Will It Help? Who Will It Hurt?

First, who is expected to gain from the U.S. policy on tariffs?

 
  • U.S. steel producers stand to gain significantly. The 25% steel tariff makes a strong argument to go for domestic steel.
  • The U.S. aluminum market has been growing with the implementation of tariffs.
  • Foreign firms serving the markets affected by U.S. tariffs may benefit.
 

Second, who is expected to get the short end of the tariff stick?

 
  • American whiskey exports may suffer. U.S. whiskey producers shipped $737 million in bourbon to Europe in the 12 months prior to March 31.
  • Harley-Davidson and other U.S. motorcycle manufacturers say tariffs will put the brakes on production.
  • Prices for beer and soda, in aluminum cans, may rise.
 

Tariff Impact on Stock Market

Tariffs—and the potential for a trade war—will loom heavy on the stock market, most analysts believe. But by how much, to what extent, and in what direction remains unanswered.

Investors, at this point, are breathing a little easier, as the U.S. stock market seems to be adjusting to the news of the tariffs. Traditional wisdom suggests trade wars don’t produce positive, short-term results. However, Trump’s reasoning rests on the premise that vast trade imbalances favoring foreign countries has unfairly put the brunt of global economic development on U.S. shoulders.

While U.S. stocks have largely climbed to unprecedented heights following Trump’s “Tax Cuts and Jobs Act” and other economic incentives in late 2017 and early 2018, the market has undergone some remarkable shifts, including the sudden 12% drop in February 2018.

We help our clients wade through the challenges and opportunities of the market, on both the personal and professional levels. When you invest in developing a relationship with an independent financial professional, you invest in your future.

Contact us today to learn more!

 

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements based on reasonable expectations, estimates, projections and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict.

The Powerful Effects of Compound Interest

Getting an early start on your retirement savings may end up being one of the best financial moves you can make for yourself and your family. Thanks to the power of compound interest, you have the opportunity to make your money work for you and grow exponentially in many cases on a tax-deferred basis.

Think of interest as a fee paid for using borrowed money. The original amount of money in your  account (without added interest) is known as the principal. Compound interest is beneficial because it’s calculated based on the principal plus the interest, resulting in greater interest accrual over the life of the investment.

The benefits of saving early and often

Let’s look at the investing choices of two hypothetical investors, Amy and John.

 

Amy

Amy started investing at age 25. She invests $3,600 per year for 15 years at an 8-percent interest rate and then stops. At age 40 her account has grown to $104,500. By age 70 her investment has grown to $1,050,000.

John

John didn’t start investing until he was 40. He invests $3,600 per year for 30 years at an 8-percent interest rate. At age 40 he has $0 in his account. At age 70 his account has grown to $450,000

 

Clearly this is for illustrative purposes only.  The figures above do not represent the performance of any specific investment and assumes no withdrawals, expenses and tax consequences.

By now you're probably saying, “Okay, I get it. Saving earlier is better than later.” While this is a key point (and one you’ve probably heard before), many people don’t realize just how important it is until they fall into financial trouble. After all, many things can get in the way of retirement saving besides procrastination, such as paying off a mortgage, car loans, sending kids to college, and unexpected injuries or illnesses. The best way to be prepared is to kick off a pattern of saving and take advantage of compound interest as early as you can.

Retirement Readiness

Although retirement may be the furthest thing from your mind at this point, recognizing how costly it can be may help you stick to a savings plan. Here’s an overview of some of the expenses that may come into play:

 

Income taxes. When you begin withdrawing funds from retirement accounts, you may lose more of your financial “nest egg” than you thought possible to income taxes.

Everyday expenses. Groceries, home maintenance and insurance, utilities, and other basic living expenses can eventually start to chip away at your savings.

Travel and hobbies. Many retirees want to travel and take up new hobbies (after all, this is what retirement should be about). Unfortunately, such dreams may not happen if you haven’t saved enough to cover the more crucial expenses highlighted above.

 

Ready to start saving big?

Clearly, getting an early start on your retirement savings (and sustaining that habit over time) can greatly improve your future financial stability. To see how much your money could grow, schedule a free consultation with us here.

Should You React To Stock Market Volatility

The best answer is "No", but that’s not always the easiest.

As you know the markets started 2018 with the wind in their sails, and we all watched as indexes continued their nearly straight-up trajectory from 2017.

Then, after the S&P 500’s best January performance since 1997, stocks took a dive at the beginning of February. On Monday, February 5, the Dow and S&P 500 each lost more than 4%, and the NASDAQ’s drop was nearly as significant. The next day, all 3 indexes posted positive returns.

I understand how unnerving these fluctuations can feel—especially as headlines shout fear-inducing statistics. My goal is to help you better understand where the markets stand today and how to apply this knowledge to your own financial life. 

Putting Performance Into Perspective

When markets post dramatic losses, many people wonder what causes the turbulence—and may assume negative financial data is to blame. However, that wasn’t the case with the recent selloff. 

No negative economic update or geopolitical drama emerged to spur the selloff. Instead, emotion-driven investing may have combined with computer-generated trading to fuel the decline.

While concerns about inflation and interest rates may be to blame for the market fluctuations, it may not be the only detail to focus on. Another key point is important to remember as an investor: Volatility is normal.

Volatility Facts

 

Average Intra-Year Declines: Since 1980, the S&P 500 has experienced an average correction each year of approximately 14%. But in 2017, the markets were unusually calm, fluctuating only 3%. Before this recent decline, the S&P had gone more than 400 days without losing over 5%—its longest span since the 1950s.

Takeaway: Markets fluctuate, and the recent lack of volatility is what’s truly unusual.

Percentages vs. Points: Many news articles mention that the Dow’s 1175-point drop on February 6 was its highest decline in history. While this statement may be true, it leaves out a key detail: The higher an index goes, the smaller a percentage of its total that each point represents. In other words, 1175 points doesn’t have the same impact at 25,000 that it does at 10,000.

Takeaway: Focus on percentages not points to gain a clearer view of market performance.

Recovery From Bad Days: The S&P 500 fell 4.1% on February 5, but within one day, the index regained 1.7%. This performance surpasses historical data. If you analyze the S&P 500’s 15 worst days—where the index lost an average of 8.16%—stocks were still in negative territory 1 day later. But, in 13 instances, stocks were back up within a year by about 21%; they were always in positive territory 5 years later.

Takeaway: Even when stocks lose more ground than they just did, they recover and positive performance returns.

 

Remembering The Last Market Correction

In August 2011, the S&P 500 lost 6.66% in one day. At that time, the European debt crisis was in full swing, the U.S. had lost its AAA credit rating, and the financial sector was reeling.

Facing that situation, impulses to leave the market and avoid further losses could have arisen. As is so often the case, however, staying invested paid off.

Only a year later, the S&P 500 had gained over 25%.

Knowing Where to Go From Here

Over short periods of time, the market trades on fear, anxiety, greed, and emotion. Over the long term, however, economic fundamentals drive the markets. The reality is that equities don’t move in a straight line. Even if volatility is here to stay, we know that price changes can provide new market opportunities.

I encourage you to focus on your long-term goals, rather than short-term fluctuations. Don’t allow emotions to derail your plans. You should feel comfortable in your financial journey. If you don’t have a financial plan in place – please feel free to contact me and I’d be happy to help you get started.